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Budgeting, Forecasting and Planning In Uncertain Times

Budgeting, Forecasting and Planning In Uncertain Times

  • 作者:
  • 出版商: John Wiley & Sons
  • ISBN: 9781940235318
  • 出版时间 April 2017
  • 规格: Paperback , 240 pages
  • 适应领域: International ? 免责申明:
    Countri(es) stated herein are used as reference only

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  • 描述 
  • 大纲 
  • 作者 
  • 详细

    Budgeting, planning and forecasting are critical management tasks that not only impact the future success of an organization, but can threaten its very survival if done badly.

    Yet in spite of their importance, the speed and complexity of today’s business environment has caused a rapid decrease in the planning time horizon. As a consequence, the traditional planning processes have become unsuitable for most organization’s needs.

    In this book, students will find new, original insights, including:

    • 7 planning models that every organization needs to plan and manage performance
    • 6 ways in which performance can be viewed
    • A planning framework based on best management practices that can cope with an unpredictable business environment
    • The application of technology to planning and latest developments in systems
    • Results of the survey conducted for the book on the state of planning in organizations
  • INTRODUCTION 1

    SECTION 1: BACKGROUND TO THE PLANNING FRAMEWORK 5

    1 PLANNING FUNDAMENTALS 7

    What is Planning? 7

    Components of Planning 8

    Planning in Today’s Business Environment 10

    The Increasing Speed of Business and Globalisation 10

    The Increasing Complexity of Business 11

    The Decreasing Planning Time Horizon 11

    Planning Challenges 12

    Dissatisfaction With the Planning Process 12

    Issues With the Planning Culture 13

    Need for a Holistic Approach 13

    Need for Better Planning Technologies 13

    Planning Principles 13

    Principle 1: Planning Connects Inputs and Outputs and is Therefore Directly Related to Organisational Activities 14

    Principle 2: Planning is About Maintaining a Shared Understanding of the Economics of a Business 14

    Principle 3: Planning is About Shifting Focus From the Past and Onto the Future 15

    Principle 4: Planning is About Aligning Budgets With Strategy to Achieve Corporate Objectives 16

    Principle 5: Planning is a Continuous Process 16 

    Principle 6: Planning is a Learning Process 17 

    Objectives of the Planning Framework 17

    2 PLANNING METHODS AND METHODOLOGIES 21

    Planning: Who, What, When, and How 21

    Planning Within a Sole Trader 21

    Planning as a Small Manufacturer 22

    Planning as a Listed Company 23

    Planning as an International Group 23

    The Rise of Management Frameworks and Methodologies 24

    Popular Management Methodologies 25

    Budgetary Control 25

    Quality Management Movement 26

    Lean Management 27

    Balanced Scorecard 28

    Beyond Budgeting 29

    Planning and Success 30

    Planning Process Maturity 31

    Planning Objectives 31

    Planning and Forecasting Maturity Levels 33

    Basic Planning 33

    Financial Integration 34

    Partial Integration 35

    Matrix Planning 35

    Dynamic Planning 36

    3 PLANNING TECHNOLOGIES 39

    Supporting the Decision-Making Process 39

    Planning Technologies: The Spread Sheet 40

    Two or Three Dimensional 41

    Cell Meaning 41

    Limited Business View 42

    Single User 42

    Lack of Workflow Capabilities 43

    Planning Technologies: Multi-Dimensional Databases 43

    Multi-Dimensional 44

    Business Hierarchies 45

    Name-Based Rules 45

    Multi-User, Role-Based Security 46

    Unlimited Size 46

    Financial Intelligence 46

    Spread Sheet Access 47

    Multi-Dimensional System Issues 47

    Comprehension 47

    Complexity 48

    Data Uniformity 48

    Effort and Price 49

    Modelling Tools 49

    SECTION 2: BUSINESS PLANNING FRAMEWORK 53

    4 BUSINESS PLANNING FRAMEWORK 55

    Logical Overview of the Framework 55

    Framework Components 56

    Operating Activity Model (OAM) 56

    Cash Funding Model (CFM) 59

    Detailed History Models (DHM) 59

    Target Setting Model (TSM) 61

    Detailed Forecasting Model (DFM) 61

    Optimise Resources Model (ORM) 61

    Performance Measures Model (PMM) 62

    Strategy Improvement Model (SIM) 62

    Management Processes 64

    Knowledge 65

    Reporting From the Planning Framework 66

    Case Study Overview 66

    About the Case Study Organisation 66

    Company Structure 67

    Company Strategy 68

    Versions and Other Information 68

    5 OPERATIONAL ACTIVITY MODEL 69

    Overview 69

    Model Structure 69

    Measurement Types and Relationships 70

    Step 1: Define High-Level Objectives 71

    Step 2: Define Core Business Processes and Assumptions 72

    Step 3: Identify Core Business Process Activities 73

    Step 4: Identify Support Activity Measures 79

    Step 5: Define Profit and Loss and Other Financial Measures 80

    Putting the Model Together 85

    Measures and Attributes 85

    Model Dimensions 86

    Model Rules 86

    Reporting From the OAM 87

    Departmental Outcomes, Activity, and Resources 87

    Outcome Versus Activity 89

    Outcome Versus Assumptions and Resources 90

    6 CASH FUNDING MODEL 91

    Model Purpose 91

    Defining the Model 92

    Model Content 92

    Additional Data Requirements Within the OAM 93

    Identifying Cash Payment Profiles Within the OAM 93

    Defining Payment Profiles Within the CFM 94

    Other Cash Measures and Rules 95

    Reporting From the CFM 97

    Displaying Cash Requirements by Department 97

    Evaluating Sources of Cash 99

    Scenario Analysis 100

    7 DETAILED HISTORY AND PERFORMANCE MEASURES MODELS 101

    Reporting Past and Future Performance 101

    Relevance 101

    Context 102

    Data Issues 103

    Reporting Performance From the Planning Framework 104

    Identifying DHMs 105

    Case Study—DHMs 106

    Sales Analysis 106

    HR 107

    General Expenses 108

    Defining the PMM 109

    PMM Content 109

    PMM Business Dimensions 110

    Case Study Measures for XYZ, Inc. 110

    Reporting From the PMM 112

    8 PREDICT AND OPTIMISE PLANNING MODELS 113

    Predicting the Future 113

    Target Setting Model (TSM) 115

    Driver-Based Modelling 115

    TSM Content for XYZ, Inc. 116

    Using the TSM 120

    Detailed Forecast Model (DFM) 121

    Overview 121

    Developing the DFM 121

    Linking the DFM to the OAM 123

    Optimise Resources Model (ORM) 123

    Overview 123

    Case Study Example 124

    9 STRATEGY IMPROVEMENT MODEL 127

    Responding to Change 127

    Model Focus 128

    Link to the OAM and CFM 129

    Defining SIM Content 130

    Linking SIM Content to Management Methodologies 131

    Planning Capabilities 132

    Communicate Goals 132

    Propose and Validate Projects 133

    Select and Approve Projects 133

    Monitor and Forecast Projects 133

    Assess Alternatives 134

    10 THE PLANNING AND MONITORING PROCESS 135

    Defining Processes 135

    Components of a Process 135

    Performance Management Processes and Tasks 137

    Strategic Planning 138

    Purpose 138

    Tasks: Inputs, Outputs, and Sequence 138

    People and Planning Models 139

    Tactical Planning 140

    Purpose 140

    Tasks: Inputs, Outputs, and Sequence 141

    People and Planning Models 141

    Financial Planning 142

    Purpose 142

    Tasks: Inputs, Outputs, and Sequence 142

    Forecasting 143

    Purpose 143

    Tasks: Inputs, Outputs, and Sequence 144

    Management Reporting 145

    Purpose 145

    Tasks: Inputs, Outputs, and Sequence 145

    Moving Toward Continuous Planning 145

    SECTION 3: IMPLEMENTING A PLANNING FRAMEWORK 147

    11 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN PLANNING AND ANALYTICS TECHNOLOGIES 149

    Corporate Performance Management (CPM) Applications 149

    The Rise of Business Analytics 150

    The Next Competitive Edge 150

    BI Versus Analytics Versus Decisions 151

    Business Analytics, Big Data, and Decision Management 151

    Predictive Business Analytics: The Next New Wave 152

    Game-Changer Wave: Automated Decision-Based Management 153

    Application Integration 153

    Cloud-Based Applications 154

    In-Memory Chip Technology 155

    12 IMPLEMENTING THE PLANNING FRAMEWORK 157

    Planning and the Role of the Chief Executive 157

    Entrenched Beliefs Concerning Performance 157

    Organisational Culture 158

    The Unwritten Rules of Budgeting 158

    Rewarding Bad Behaviour 159

    Failure to Execute 159

    Implementing Change 159

    Agree on the Role of Planning 160

    Model Existing Processes 160

    Establish Improvement Themes 161

    Plan- and Resource-Specific Change Programmes 161

    Monitor Implementation 161

    Use Technology to Support Change 162

    Continually Develop the Planning Models Within the Framework 162

    APPENDIX I: CGMA BUDGET AND PLANNING SURVEY RESULTS 165

    APPENDIX II: REQUIREMENTS OF A PLANNING SYSTEM 213

  • Michael Coveney has more than 35 years of experience in the financial analytic software industry, where he specialized in helping enterprise combine “best management practices” with technology to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their performance management processes. In recent years he has focused on conducting management workshops aimed at bringing senior executives and their management teams together around the topic of managing corporate performance and the role that technology can play.

    His energetic style and extensive experience has led him to become a regular speaker at many international events, a course leader with the Antwerp Management School, and the author of many articles and books including his latest Strategy to the Max published by FSN. He also has a blog (theCPMblog.com) where he discusses the last development and observations in performance management.

    Gary Cokins is an internationally recognized expert, speaker and author in advanced cost management and performance improvement systems. He is the founder of Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC at garycokins.com.  Gary received his BS degree in Industrial Engineering/Operations Research from Cornell University and his MBA from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. Gary began his career with Deloitte Consulting. Next with KPMG Peat Marwick, Gary was trained on ABC by Harvard Business School professors Robert S. Kaplan and Robin Cooper. Gary headed the National Cost Management Consulting Services for Electronic Data Systems (EDS)/A.T. Kearney and from 1996 to 2012 was a Principal Consultant with SAS, a global leader in business intelligence and analytics software. Gary’s thought leadership in this arena is broadly recognized and his books and articles are widely read.

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