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Explaining the Evidence: How the Mind Investigates the World

Explaining the Evidence: How the Mind Investigates the World

作者： David A. Lagnado
出版商： Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521184816
出版时间 October 2021
规格： Paperback
适应领域： U.K. ? 免责申明：
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How do we make sense of complex evidence? What are the cognitive principles that allow detectives to solve crimes, and lay people to puzzle out everyday problems? To address these questions, David Lagnado presents a novel perspective on human reasoning. At heart, we are causal thinkers driven to explain the myriad ways in which people behave and interact. We build mental models of the world, enabling us to infer patterns of cause and effect, linking words to deeds, actions to effects, and crimes to evidence. But building models is not enough; we need to evaluate these models against evidence, and we often struggle with this task. We have a knack for explaining, but less skill at evaluating. Fortunately, we can improve our reasoning by reflecting on inferential practices and using formal tools. This book presents a system of rational inference that helps us evaluate our models and make sounder judgments.
1. The Cliff Death
2. Models in Mind
3. Causal Modelling
4. Thinking Beyond Biases
5. Expert Reasoning in Crime Investigation
6. Questions of Evidence
7. Competing Causes
8. Confirmation Bias: Good, Bad and Ugly
9. Telling Stories
10. Idioms for Legal Reasoning
11. Causal Reasoning in a Time of Crisis
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